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Deutsch2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The 2006 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 7, 2006, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and three of the four inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. These elections took place halfway through the second term of Republican President George W. Bush. The winners served in the 110th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 1995 as a result of the 2006 elections.
Election ratings
[edit]The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered safe for the incumbent's party.
| District | CPVI | Incumbent | Previous result | Cook November 6, 2006[1] | Rothenberg November 6, 2006[2] | Sabato November 6, 2006[3] | RCP November 6, 2006[4] | CQ Politics November 7, 2006[5] | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona 1 | R+2 | Rick Renzi (R) | 58.6% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Rick Renzi (R) |
| Arizona 5 | R+4 | J. D. Hayworth (R) | 59.5% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Harry Mitchell (D) |
| Arizona 8 | R+1 | Jim Kolbe (R) (retiring) | 60.4% R | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Gabby Giffords (D) |
| California 4 | R+11 | John Doolittle (R) | 65.4% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | John Doolittle (R) |
| California 11 | R+3 | Richard Pombo (R) | 61.3% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Lean R | Jerry McNerney (D) |
| California 50 | R+5 | Brian Bilbray (R) | 49.3% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Brian Bilbray (R) |
| Colorado 3 | R+6 | John Salazar (D) | 50.5% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | John Salazar (D) |
| Colorado 4 | R+9 | Marilyn Musgrave (R) | 51.0% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Lean R | Marilyn Musgrave (R) |
| Colorado 5 | R+16 | Joel Hefley (R) (retiring) | 70.6% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Doug Lamborn (R) |
| Colorado 6 | R+10 | Tom Tancredo (R) | 59.7% R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Tom Tancredo (R) |
| Colorado 7 | D+2 | Bob Beauprez (R) (retiring)[a] | 54.7% R | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Ed Perlmutter (D) |
| Connecticut 2 | D+8 | Rob Simmons (R) | 54.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Lean R | Joe Courtney (D) |
| Connecticut 4 | D+5 | Chris Shays (R) | 52.4% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Chris Shays (R) |
| Connecticut 5 | D+4 | Nancy Johnson (R) | 59.8% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Chris Murphy (D) |
| Florida 8 | R+3 | Ric Keller (R) | 60.5% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Ric Keller (R) |
| Florida 9 | R+4 | Michael Bilirakis (R) | 100% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Gus Bilirakis (R) |
| Florida 13 | R+4 | Katherine Harris (R) (retiring)[b] | 55.3% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Vern Buchanan (R) |
| Florida 16 | R+2 | Vacant[c] | 68.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tim Mahoney (D) |
| Florida 22 | D+4 | Clay Shaw (R) | 62.9% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Tossup | Ron Klein (D) |
| Georgia 8 | R+8 | Jim Marshall (D) | 62.9% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Jim Marshall (D) |
| Georgia 12 | D+2 | John Barrow (D) | 51.8% D | Likely D | Tilt D | Tilt D | Tossup | Lean D | John Barrow (D) |
| Idaho 1 | R+19 | Butch Otter (R) (retiring)[a] | 69.5% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Lean R | Bill Sali (R) |
| Illinois 6 | R+3 | Henry Hyde (R) (retiring) | 55.8% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Peter Roskam (R) |
| Illinois 8 | R+5 | Melissa Bean (D) | 51.7% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Melissa Bean (D) |
| Illinois 10 | D+4 | Mark Kirk (R) | 64.1% R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Mark Kirk (R) |
| Illinois 17 | D+5 | Lane Evans (D) (retiring) | 60.7% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Phil Hare (D) |
| Indiana 2 | R+4 | Chris Chocola (R) | 54.2% R | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Joe Donnelly (D) |
| Indiana 3 | R+16 | Mark Souder (R) | 69.2% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Mark Souder (R) |
| Indiana 7 | D+9 | Julia Carson (D) | 54.3% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Julia Carson (D) |
| Indiana 8 | R+9 | John Hostettler (R) | 53.4% R | Tossup | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Brad Ellsworth (D) |
| Indiana 9 | R+7 | Mike Sodrel (R) | 49.4% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Baron Hill (D) |
| Iowa 1 | D+5 | Jim Nussle (R) (retiring)[a] | 55.2% R | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Bruce Braley (D) |
| Iowa 2 | D+7 | Jim Leach (R) | 58.9% R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Dave Loebsack (D) |
| Iowa 3 | D+1 | Leonard Boswell (D) | 55.2% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Leonard Boswell (D) |
| Kansas 2 | R+7 | Jim Ryun (R) | 56.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Safe R | Likely R | Nancy Boyda (D) |
| Kansas 3 | R+4 | Dennis Moore (D) | 54.8% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Dennis Moore (D) |
| Kentucky 2 | R+13 | Ron Lewis (R) | 67.9% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Ron Lewis (R) |
| Kentucky 3 | D+2 | Anne Northup (R) | 60.3% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | John Yarmuth (D) |
| Kentucky 4 | R+12 | Geoff Davis (R) | 54.4% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Lean R | Geoff Davis (R) |
| Louisiana 2 | D+28 | William Jefferson (D) | 79.0% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | William Jefferson (D) |
| Louisiana 3 | R+5 | Charlie Melançon (D) | 50.2% D | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Charlie Melançon (D) |
| Louisiana 7 | R+7 | Charles Boustany (R) | 55.0% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Charles Boustany (R) |
| Maryland 3 | D+7 | Ben Cardin (D) (retiring)[b] | 63.4% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | John Sarbanes (D) |
| Maryland 6 | R+13 | Roscoe Bartlett (R) | 67.5% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Roscoe Bartlett (R) |
| Michigan 7 | R+2 | Joe Schwarz (R) (lost renomination) | 58.4% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Tim Walberg (R) |
| Michigan 8 | R+2 | Mike Rogers (R) | 61.1% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Mike Rogers (R) |
| Minnesota 1 | R+1 | Gil Gutknecht (R) | 59.6% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Tim Walz (D) |
| Minnesota 2 | R+3 | John Kline (R) | 56.4% R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | John Kline (R) |
| Minnesota 6 | R+5 | Mark Kennedy (R) (retiring)[b] | 54.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Michele Bachmann (R) |
| Nebraska 1 | R+11 | Jeff Fortenberry (R) | 54.2% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Lean R | Jeff Fortenberry (R) |
| Nebraska 3 | R+24 | Tom Osborne (R) (retiring)[a] | 87.5% R | Lean R | Likely R | Tilt R | Safe R | Lean R | Adrian Smith (R) |
| Nevada 2 | R+8 | Jim Gibbons (R) (retiring)[a] | 66.5% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Dean Heller (R) |
| Nevada 3 | D+1 | Jon Porter (R) | 54.5% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Jon Porter (R) |
| New Hampshire 1 | Even | Jeb Bradley (R) | 63.4% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Carol Shea-Porter (D) |
| New Hampshire 2 | D+3 | Charles Bass (R) | 58.3% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Paul Hodes (D) |
| New Jersey 5 | R+4 | Scott Garrett (R) | 57.6% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Scott Garrett (R) |
| New Jersey 7 | R+1 | Mike Ferguson (R) | 56.9% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Mike Ferguson (R) |
| New Mexico 1 | D+2 | Heather Wilson (R) | 54.4% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Heather Wilson (R) |
| New York 3 | D+2 | Peter King (R) | 63.0% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Peter King (R) |
| New York 13 | D+1 | Vito Fossella (R) | 59.0% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Vito Fossella (R) |
| New York 19 | R+1 | Sue Kelly (R) | 66.7% R | Lean R | Likely R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | John Hall (D) |
| New York 20 | R+3 | John E. Sweeney (R) | 65.8% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
| New York 24 | R+1 | Sherwood Boehlert (R) (retiring) | 56.9% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Mike Arcuri (D) |
| New York 25 | D+3 | James T. Walsh (R) | 90.4% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | James T. Walsh (R) |
| New York 26 | R+3 | Thomas M. Reynolds (R) | 55.6% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean D (flip) | Thomas M. Reynolds (R) |
| New York 29 | R+5 | Randy Kuhl (R) | 50.7% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Randy Kuhl (R) |
| North Carolina 8 | R+3 | Robin Hayes (R) | 55.5% R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Robin Hayes (R) |
| North Carolina 11 | R+7 | Charles Taylor (R) | 54.9% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Heath Shuler (D) |
| North Carolina 13 | D+2 | Brad Miller (D) | 58.8% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Brad Miller (D) |
| Ohio 1 | R+1 | Steve Chabot (R) | 59.8% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Steve Chabot (R) |
| Ohio 2 | R+13 | Jean Schmidt (R) | 51.6% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Jean Schmidt (R) |
| Ohio 6 | Even | Ted Strickland (D) (retiring)[a] | 100.0% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Charlie Wilson (D) |
| Ohio 12 | R+1 | Pat Tiberi (R) | 62.0% R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Pat Tiberi (R) |
| Ohio 13 | D+6 | Sherrod Brown (D) (retiring)[b] | 67.4% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Betty Sutton (D) |
| Ohio 15 | R+1 | Deborah Pryce (R) | 60.0% R | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Deborah Pryce (R) |
| Ohio 18 | R+6 | Vacant[d] | 66.2% R | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Zack Space (D) |
| Oregon 5 | D+1 | Darlene Hooley (D) | 52.9% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Darlene Hooley (D) |
| Pennsylvania 4 | R+3 | Melissa Hart (R) | 63.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Jason Altmire (D) |
| Pennsylvania 6 | D+2 | Jim Gerlach (R) | 51.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Jim Gerlach (R) |
| Pennsylvania 7 | D+4 | Curt Weldon (R) | 58.8% R | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Joe Sestak (D) |
| Pennsylvania 8 | D+3 | Mike Fitzpatrick (R) | 55.3% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Patrick Murphy (D) |
| Pennsylvania 10 | R+8 | Don Sherwood (R) | 92.8% R | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Chris Carney (D) |
| South Carolina 5 | R+6 | John Spratt (D) | 63.1% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | John Spratt (D) |
| Texas 17 | R+18 | Chet Edwards (D) | 51.2% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Chet Edwards (D) |
| Texas 22 | R+15 | Vacant[e] | 55.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Nick Lampson (D) |
| Texas 23 | R+4 | Henry Bonilla (R) | 69.3% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Ciro Rodriguez (D) |
| Utah 2 | R+17 | Jim Matheson (D) | 54.8% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Jim Matheson (D) |
| Vermont at-large | D+8 | Bernie Sanders (I) (retiring)[b] | 67.4% I | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Peter Welch (D) |
| Virginia 2 | R+6 | Thelma Drake (R) | 55.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Thelma Drake (R) |
| Virginia 11 | R+5 | Frank Wolf (R) | 63.7% R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Frank Wolf (R) |
| Washington 2 | D+3 | Rick Larsen (D) | 54.8% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Rick Larsen (D) |
| Washington 5 | R+7 | Cathy McMorris (R) | 59.7% R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Cathy McMorris (R) |
| Washington 8 | D+2 | Dave Reichert (R) | 51.5% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Dave Reichert (R) |
| West Virginia 1 | R+6 | Alan Mollohan (D) | 67.8% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Alan Mollohan (D) |
| West Virginia 2 | R+5 | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | 57.5% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
| Wisconsin 8 | Even | Mark Green (R) (retiring)[a] | 70.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Steve Kagen (D) |
| Wyoming at-large | R+19 | Barbara Cubin (R) | 55.3% R | Tossup | Likely R | Tilt R | Safe R | Tossup | Barbara Cubin (R) |
| Overall | D - 207 R - 189 39 tossups | D - 220 R - 196 19 tossups | D - 233 R - 202 | D - 214 R - 205 16 tossups | D - 213 R - 199 23 tossups | D - 233 R - 202 | |||
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g Retired to run for Governor
- ^ a b c d e Retired to run for senate
- ^ Incumbent Mark Foley (Republican) resigned in September 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress.
- ^ Incumbent Bob Ney (Republican) resigned in November 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress.
- ^ Incumbent Tom DeLay (Republican) resigned in June 2006, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of DeLay's term.
References
[edit]- ^ "2006 Competitive House Race Chart" (PDF). House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
- ^ "2006 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on November 7, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
- ^ "2006 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on November 10, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
- ^ "Battle for the House of Representatives". realclearpolitics.com. Real Clear Politics. November 7, 2006. Archived from the original on November 9, 2006. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
- ^ "Balance of Power Scorecard: House". cqpolitics.com. Congressional Quarterly Inc. Archived from the original on November 17, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.