Opinion polling for the 2018 Italian general election

In the years running up to the 2018 Italian general election, held on 4 March, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in Italy. Results of such polls are given in this article. The date range is from the 2013 Italian general election, held on 24–25 February, to two weeks before the new election, 16 February 2018. Poll results are reported at the dates when the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication; if such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. Under the Italian par condicio (equal conditions) law, publication of opinion polls is forbidden in the last two weeks of an electoral campaign.[1][2]

Party vote[edit]

The data on Forza Italia (FI) prior to 16 November 2013 refer to its predecessor, The People of Freedom (PdL), which at its dissolution suffered the split of the New Centre-Right (NCD). Since the 2014 European Parliament election most opinion polls have calculated the Union of the Centre (UdC) together with the NCD, even after December 2016, when the two parties parted ways. Since December 2014 results for Lega Nord (LN) have included its sister party Us with Salvini (NcS). Since November 2015 Left Ecology Freedom (SEL) started to be polled as Italian Left (SI), before finally be merged into it in February 2017. In the same month splinters from the Democratic Party (PD) and the Italian Left formed Article One (MDP), while other leftists launched the short-lived Progressive Camp (CP). In March 2017 the NCD was transformed into Popular Alternative (AP). In December 2017 the MDP, SI and minor groups launched a joint list named Free and Equal (LeU).

In the run-up of the election several other electoral lists were formed, notably including More Europe (+Eu), Together, Power to the People (PaP), Us with Italy (NcI) and the Popular Civic List (CP). Moreover, two broader alliances were formed: the centre-left coalition and the centre-right coalition.

Some polls may include the Communist Refoundation Party (PRC) instead of PaP.

Graphical summary[edit]

6-point average trend line of poll results from 25 February 2013 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.
  PD
  M5S
  PdL/FI
  SC
  NCD/AP
  LN
  SEL / SI / LeU
  FdI
  UdC
  MDP
  CP
  +Eu
  I
  CP
  NcI
  PaP
  CPI

2018[edit]

Date Polling firm Sample
size
CSX CDX M5S LeU PaP CPI Others Lead
PD +Eu I CP FI LN FdI NcI
4 Mar 2018 General election Archived 2018-03-11 at the Wayback Machine 18.8 2.6 0.6 0.5 14.0 17.4 4.3 1.3 32.7 3.4 1.1 0.9 2.4 13.9
12–16 Feb Termometro Politico 4,500 21.3 2.8 0.9 0.9 15.9 14.8 5.0 1.8 26.3 5.3 1.7 1.8 1.5 5.0
14–15 Feb Demopolis 2,000 22.5 2.5 2.0 16.5 14.2 5.0 2.3 28.0 6.0 1.0 5.5
14 Feb Euromedia 800 22.1 2.3 0.8 0.5 17.3 14.2 4.8 2.3 26.8 5.8 0.6 2.1 4.7
13–14 Feb Piepoli 505 24.5 3.0 1.0 0.5 16.0 13.0 5.0 3.0 27.0 6.0 0.5 0.5 2.5
12–14 Feb Demos 1,014 21.9 3.5 16.3 13.2 4.8 27.8 6.1 6.4 5.9
12–14 Feb Ixè 1,000 21.5 3.5 0.6 0.7 18.0 10.8 4.7 1.8 28.1 6.0 2.0 2.3 6.6
12–14 Feb Index 800 22.8 2.2 1.0 1.2 16.4 13.8 4.9 2.4 27.6 5.9 1.8 4.8
12–14 Feb SWG 2,000 23.5 2.9 0.8 1.0 15.2 13.4 4.4 2.2 28.3 5.9 0.9 1.5 4.8
5–14 Feb Demetra 6,006 23.7 2.6 0.5 0.6 15.0 14.7 4.4 0.6 29.4 5.3 1.3 0.6 1.3 5.7
13 Feb IPR 22.0 2.8 1.0 2.0 16.5 14.5 4.5 3.0 28.5 4.5 1.0 0.5 6.5
13 Feb Piepoli 25.0 2.5 1.0 0.5 16.0 13.0 5.0 2.5 27.0 6.0 0.5 1.0 2.0
12–13 Feb Tecnè 1,001 21.8 2.6 18.3 12.8 5.0 2.9 28.3 5.3 3.0 6.5
12 Feb Euromedia 800 22.4 2.0 0.7 0.5 17.5 14.1 4.8 2.2 27.0 6.1 0.8 1.9 4.6
8–12 Feb Bidimedia 1,300 24.4 1.9 1.0 1.4 16.3 14.5 3.9 2.5 25.3 4.6 1.2 1.1 1.9 0.9
9–11 Feb EMG 1,614 22.8 2.1 1.6 1.0 16.1 13.9 4.6 2.8 27.3 5.2 0.8 0.6 1.2 4.5
8–11 Feb Lorien 1,000 23.6 1.2 0.8 1.5 17.9 12.3 4.6 1.2 27.6 5.0 2.7 1.5 0.2 4.0
8 Feb SWG 1,000 23.3 2.8 0.8 1.3 15.7 13.1 4.8 2.0 28.0 6.5 0.7 1.0 4.7
8 Feb Index 800 23.5 1.9 1.5 1.1 15.7 14.1 5.0 2.6 27.3 6.0 1.3 3.8
7–8 Feb Demopolis 1,000 22.8 16.3 14.0 4.7 28.3 5.8 8.1 5.5
6–8 Feb EMG 1,683 22.4 2.0 1.6 1.0 15.0 14.6 4.6 2.8 28.1 5.7 2.2 5.7
3–8 Feb Termometro Politico 3,500 21.9 2.1 0.7 0.5 15.3 14.8 5.5 2.0 26.8 5.3 1.5 1.9 1.7 4.9
6–7 Feb Tecnè 1,003 22.1 1.6 18.3 13.2 4.9 2.9 28.0 5.7 3.3 5.9
5–7 Feb Ixè 1,000 22.1 3.0 0.8 0.7 17.3 11.1 4.8 2.0 28.3 6.5 1.3 2.1 6.2
5 Feb Piepoli 500 25.0 3.0 1.0 0.5 16.0 14.0 5.0 2.5 27.0 6.5 0.2 0.3 2.0
2–4 Feb EMG 1,742 23.0 1.9 1.6 1.0 15.8 14.3 4.6 2.8 27.2 5.4 2.0 4.2
1–4 Feb Lorien 1,000 24.0 1.2 0.2 1.6 17.1 12.3 4.4 1.6 28.1 5.7 2.4 1.1 0.3 4.1
30 Jan–2 Feb Bidimedia 1,235 24.2 1.6 1.2 1.6 16.2 13.3 4.2 2.2 26.2 5.0 1.1 0.9 2.3 2.0
22 Jan–2 Feb Termometro Politico 4,000 22.0 1.9 1.2 0.6 15.5 14.0 5.3 1.5 26.8 5.6 1.6 1.8 2.3 4.8
1 Feb Euromedia 800 23.8 1.6 1.1 0.8 17.8 13.8 4.5 2.3 27.2 5.7 0.7 0.3 3.4
1 Feb Index 800 23.8 1.6 1.8 1.1 15.8 13.7 5.0 2.5 26.9 6.3 1.7 3.1
1 Feb Piepoli 800 25.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 15.0 13.0 4.5 2.5 27.5 6.5 0.5 2.0
30 Jan–1 Feb EMG 1,702 23.8 1.6 1.8 1.0 16.0 13.6 4.8 2.8 26.9 5.3 2.0 3.1
29 Jan–1 Feb Ixè Archived 2018-02-06 at the Wayback Machine 1,000 22.0 2.6 0.4 0.8 17.0 11.5 4.3 2.0 28.7 7.3 1.2 2.2 6.7
29–31 Jan SWG 1,500 23.7 2.0 1.0 1.1 15.9 12.9 5.1 2.3 28.4 6.0 0.5 1.1 4.7
29 Jan Tecnè 898 22.2 1.6 18.3 12.8 5.1 2.8 27.8 6.2 3.2 5.6
28–29 Jan Demopolis 1,500 23.0 16.0 14.0 4.5 29.5 6.0 6.5
26–28 Jan EMG 1,778 24.0 1.6 1.7 1.0 15.9 13.8 5.0 2.8 26.5 5.7 2.0 2.5
25 Jan Euromedia 800 24.3 1.5 0.6 1.1 18.4 13.6 4.5 2.1 26.4 6.0 0.5 1.0 2.1
25 Jan Index 800 24.0 1.3 1.6 1.0 15.8 13.7 5.2 2.1 27.0 6.5 1.8 3.0
25 Jan Piepoli 506 25.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 15.0 13.5 4.5 2.5 27.5 7.0 1.0 2.0
22–25 Jan Ixè Archived 2018-01-29 at the Wayback Machine 1,000 21.8 2.0 0.7 0.9 16.7 11.9 4.4 2.2 29.2 7.0 3.2 7.4
23–24 Jan Ipsos 1,000 22.7 4.0 16.9 13.7 4.6 1.1 29.3 6.1 1.6 6.6
22–24 Jan SWG Archived 2019-09-01 at the Wayback Machine 1,500 24.0 1.5 0.9 1.3 16.0 13.0 5.5 2.2 27.8 6.4 0.4 0.6 3.8
22–23 Jan Tecnè 1,501 22.3 1.7 18.3 12.5 5.3 2.8 27.4 6.3 3.4 5.1
22 Jan Lorien 1,000 25.3 1.1 0.2 1.4 15.9 12.2 4.0 1.4 29.2 5.9 1.5 3.9
22 Jan IPR 22.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 16.0 12.0 6.0 3.0 28.0 6.0 2.0 6.0
19–22 Jan Tecnè 801 22.3 1.8 18.2 12.6 5.4 2.8 27.0 6.2 3.7 4.7
19–21 Jan EMG 1,803 23.7 1.4 1.6 1.0 16.0 13.9 5.1 2.7 27.0 6.1 1.1 3.3
17–19 Jan Ixè 1,000 22.3 1.9 0.6 1.2 17.4 11.3 4.5 2.5 27.8 7.4 3.1 5.5
16–17 Jan Index 800 24.0 1.4 1.5 1.0 15.6 13.6 5.3 1.5 27.5 6.5 1.1 3.5
15–17 Jan SWG 1,500 23.6 1.2 0.8 1.3 16.0 13.2 5.7 2.0 27.3 6.8 0.7 1.4 3.7
15 Jan Piepoli 810 25.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 15.0 14.0 5.0 2.5 27.0 7.0 1.0 2.0
15 Jan Euromedia 800 24.2 1.8 0.4 1.2 18.0 13.5 4.4 2.4 26.3 6.0 0.6 1.2 2.1
12–14 Jan EMG 1,889 23.8 1.4 1.5 1.1 15.7 13.8 5.5 2.6 26.8 6.0 1.4 3.0
10–11 Jan Demopolis 1,500 23.5 3.5 15.6 13.8 5.0 1.9 29.2 6.5 1.0 5.7
10–11 Jan Ipsos 998 23.1 1.2 1.4 1.8 16.5 13.8 4.7 0.9 28.7 6.4 0.7 0.8 5.6
9–11 Jan EMG 1,611 23.5 1.3 1.5 1.1 15.3 13.5 5.5 2.4 27.9 5.8 2.2 4.4
8–10 Jan Ixè 2,000 23.1 1.7 1.7 17.2 11.8 4.9 2.4 27.8 7.0 2.4 4.7
8–10 Jan Index 800 24.0 1.5 1.7 0.8 15.0 13.7 5.4 1.6 28.0 6.2 2.1 4.0
8–10 Jan SWG 1,500 23.1 1.3 0.9 1.4 16.7 13.1 5.7 1.6 26.7 6.8 0.7 2.0 3.6
9 Jan IPR 22.0 2.5 0.5 2.5 16.0 13.0 6.3 2.7 28.0 5.0 1.5 6.0
6–9 Jan Bidimedia 1,143 24.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 16.1 12.9 4.5 2.5 27.0 5.9 0.9 0.6 1.8 2.9
8 Jan Tecnè 1,000 20.7 4.3 18.0 12.6 5.3 2.6 28.1 6.7 1.7 7.4
6–8 Jan Demopolis 1,000 24.0 2.5 15.3 14.0 5.0 1.9 29.0 7.0 1.3 5.0
5–7 Jan EMG 1,603 24.1 1.4 1.5 1.0 14.8 13.6 5.5 2.2 28.2 5.6 2.1 4.1

2017[edit]

2016[edit]

2015[edit]

2014[edit]

2013[edit]