2004 United States presidential election in Hawaii

2004 United States presidential election in Hawaii

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 4 0 Popular vote 231,708 194,191 Percentage 54.01% 45.26%

County Results Kerry   50-60%   60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Elections in Hawaii
Federal government Presidential elections 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Presidential primaries Democratic 2000 2004 2008 2016 2020 2024 Republican 2008 2012 2016 2024 U.S. Senate elections 1959 1962 1964 1968 1970 1974 1976 1980 1982 1986 1988 1990 1990 sp 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2010 2012 2014 sp 2016 2018 2022 2024 2028 U.S. House of Representatives elections 1959 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1st sp 1988 1990 2nd sp 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2nd sp 2003 (2nd sp) 2004 2006 2008 2010 1st sp 2012 2014 2016 1st sp 2018 2020 2022 2024
State government Gubernatorial elections 1959 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Senate elections 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 House of Representatives elections 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Hawaiian Kingdom era House of Representatives 1884 1886
Ballot measures 1998 Amendment 2
Honolulu Mayoral elections 2008 2010 sp 2012 2016 2020 2024
v t e

The 2004 United States presidential election in Hawaii took place on November 2, 2004. Voters chose four representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Hawaii was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by an 8.7% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. The state has voted Republican only twice since statehood (in the 49-state Republican landslides of 1972 and 1984). As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time Hawaii was decided by a single-digit margin, the last time a Democratic candidate for president failed to receive 60% of the vote in Hawaii, and also the last time a Republican received more than 35% of the vote here. As of 2020, this is the only time since statehood that an incumbent president has won reelection without carrying Hawaii. Bush's strong performance in the state has been explained by the relatively high troop count (10,000) from Hawaii deployed to either Iraq, or Afghanistan.^[1]

• 2004 Hawaii Democratic caucuses

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[2]

Only 4 pre-election polls were taken in the state in the entire 2004 election. Kerry won the first two, which were taken before October, and Bush won the other 2 which were taken in the final month of October. The final RCP average gave Bush leading with a margin of 0.9%.^[3] The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 48% to 43%.^[4]

Bush raised $906,799.^[5] Kerry raised $279,877.^[6]

Neither campaign spent advertising money during the fall campaign. However, with polls showing the race tightening, Vice President Cheney appeared at a campaign rally for the Republican ticket in Honolulu on October 31, 2004.^[7][8]

Bush and Cheney did campaign here early on, but not throughout the entire campaign. Hawaii is considered too much of a Democratic stronghold to be a swing state. Hawaii is represented by two Democratic senators and representatives, and there has never been any competition in a senatorial election. Despite Bush's loss in the state, he improved upon his performance in the state from 2000. More importantly, he had the strongest showing for a Republican presidential candidate in the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984, doing a little better than his father did in 1988.^{[citation needed]} This is the last time Hawaii was decided by a single digit margin. This is also the last time a Republican received more than 45% of the vote in Hawaii. Bush's strongest local performance was in Honolulu County (Oahu) where he trailed Kerry by slightly more than 2% of the vote.

Kerry won both congressional districts.^[11]

Technically the voters of Hawaii cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Hawaii is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Hawaii. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards:^[12]

1. Frances Kagawa
2. Joy Kobashigawa Lewis
3. Samuel Mitchell
4. Dolly Strazar