Civilian casualty ratio

In armed conflicts, the civilian casualty ratio (also civilian death ratio, civilian-combatant ratio, etc.) is the ratio of civilian casualties to combatant casualties, or total casualties. The measurement can apply either to casualties inflicted by or to a particular belligerent, casualties inflicted in one aspect or arena of a conflict or to casualties in the conflict as a whole. Casualties usually refer to both dead and injured. In some calculations, deaths resulting from famine and epidemics are included.

Starting in the 1980s, it has often been claimed that 90 percent of the victims of modern wars are civilians,^[1][2][3][4] repeated in academic publications as recently as 2014.^[5] These claims, though widely believed and correct regarding some wars, do not hold up as a generalization across the overwhelming majority of wars, particularly in the case of wars such as those in former Yugoslavia and in Afghanistan which are central to the claims.^[6] Some of the citations can be traced back to a 1991 monograph from Uppsala University^[7] which includes refugees and internally displaced persons as casualties. Other authors cite Ruth Leger Sivard's 1991 monograph in which the author states "In the decade of the 1980s, the proportion of civilian deaths jumped to 74 percent of the total and in 1990 it appears to have been close to 90 percent."^[8]

A wide-ranging study of civilian war deaths from 1700 to 1987 by William Eckhardt states:

On the average, half of the deaths caused by war happened to civilians, only some of whom were killed by famine associated with war...The civilian percentage share of war-related deaths remained at about 50% from century to century. (p. 97)^[9]

Although it is estimated that over 1 million people died in the Mexican Revolution, most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 combatant deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.^[10][11]

Some 7 million combatants on both sides are estimated to have died during World War I, along with an estimated 10 million non-combatants, including 6.6 million civilians.^{[citation needed]} The civilian casualty ratio in this estimate would be about 59%. Boris Urlanis notes a lack of data on civilian losses in the Ottoman Empire, but estimates 8.6 million military killed and dead and 6 million civilians killed and dead in the other warring countries.^[12] The civilian casualty ratio in this estimate would be about 42%. Most of the civilian fatalities were due to famine, typhus, or Spanish flu rather than combat action. The relatively low ratio of civilian casualties in this war is due to the fact that the front lines on the main battlefront, the Western Front, were static for most of the war, so that civilians were able to avoid the combat zones.

Chemical weapons were widely used by all sides during the conflict and wind frequently carried poison gas into nearby towns where civilians did not have access to gas masks or warning systems. An estimated 100,000-260,000 civilian casualties were affected by the use of chemical weapons during the conflict and tens of thousands more died from the effects of such weapons in the years after the conflict ended.^[13][14]

Germany suffered 750,000 civilian dead during and after the war due to famine caused by the Allied blockade. Russia and Turkey suffered civilian casualties in the millions in the Russian Civil War and invasion of Anatolia respectively.^[15] Armenia suffered up to 1.5 million civilians dead in the Armenian genocide.^[16]

According to most sources, World War II was the most lethal war in world history, with some 70 million killed in six years. According to some, the civilian to combatant fatality ratio in World War II lies somewhere between 3:2 and 2:1, or from 60% to 67%.^[17][18] According to others, the ratio is at least 3:1 and potentially higher.^[19] The high ratio of civilian casualties in this war was due in part to the increasing effectiveness and lethality of strategic weapons which were used to target enemy industrial or population centers, and famines caused by economic disruption. An estimated 2.1–3 million Indians died in the Bengal famine of 1943 in India during World War II. A substantial number of civilians in this war were also deliberately killed by Axis Powers as a result of genocide such as the Holocaust or other ethnic cleansing campaigns.^[15]

The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the Korean War is 2,730,000. The total estimated North Korean combatant deaths is 213,000 and the estimated Chinese combatant deaths is over 400,000. In addition to this the Republic of Korea combatant deaths is around 134,000 dead and the combatant deaths for the United Nations side is around 49,000 dead and missing (40,000 dead, 9,000 missing). The estimated total Korean war military dead is around 793,000 deaths. The civilian-combatant death ratio in the war is approximately 3:1 or 75%. One source estimates that 20% of the total population of North Korea perished in the war.^[20]

The Vietnamese government has estimated the number of Vietnamese civilians killed in the Vietnam War at two million, and the number of NVA and Viet Cong killed at 1.1 million—estimates which approximate those of a number of other sources.^[21] This would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of approximately 2:1, or 67%. These figures do not include civilians killed in Cambodia and Laos. However, the lowest estimate of 411,000^[22] civilians killed during the war (including civilians killed in Cambodia and Laos) would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of approximately 1:3, or 25%. Using the lowest estimate of Vietnamese military deaths, 400,000, the ratio is about 1:1.

In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon with the stated aim of driving the PLO away from its northern borders.^[23] The war culminated in a seven-week-long Israeli naval, air and artillery bombardment of Lebanon's capital, Beirut, where the PLO had retreated. The bombardment eventually came to an end with an internationally brokered settlement in which the PLO forces were given safe passage to evacuate the country.^[24]

According to the International Red Cross, by the end of the first week of the war alone, some 10,000 people, including 2,000 combatants, had been killed, and 16,000 wounded—a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of 4:1.^[25] Lebanese government sources later estimated that by the end of the siege of Beirut, a total of about 18,000 had been killed, an estimated 85% of whom were civilians.^[26][27] This gives a civilian to military casualty ratio of about 6:1.

According to Richard A. Gabriel between 1,000 and 3,000 civilians were killed in the southern campaign.^[28] He states that an additional 4,000 to 5,000 civilians died from all actions of all sides during the siege of Beirut,^[28] and that some 2,000 Syrian soldiers were killed during the Lebanon campaign and a further 2,400 PLO guerillas were also killed.^[28] Of these, 1,000 PLO guerrillas were killed during the siege.^[28] According to Gabriel the ratio of civilian deaths to combatants during the siege was about 6 to 1 but this ratio includes civilian deaths from all actions of all sides.^[28]

During the First Chechen War, 4,000 separatist fighters and 40,000 civilians are estimated to have died, giving a civilian-combatant ratio of 10:1. The numbers for the Second Chechen War are 3,000 fighters and 13,000 civilians, for a ratio of 4.3:1. The combined ratio for both wars is 7.6:1. Casualty numbers for the conflict are notoriously unreliable. The estimates of the civilian casualties during the First Chechen war range from 20,000 to 100,000, with remaining numbers being similarly unreliable.^[29] The tactics employed by Russian forces in both wars were heavily criticized by human rights groups, which accused them of indiscriminate bombing and shelling of civilian areas and other crimes.^[30][31]

In 1999, NATO intervened in the Kosovo War with a bombing campaign against Yugoslav forces, who were conducting a campaign of ethnic cleansing. The bombing lasted about 2½ months, until forcing the withdrawal of the Yugoslav army from Kosovo.

Estimates for the number of casualties caused by the bombing vary widely depending on the source. NATO unofficially claimed a toll of 5,000 enemy combatants killed by the bombardment; the Yugoslav government, on the other hand, gave a figure of 638 of its security forces killed in Kosovo.^[32] Estimates for the civilian toll are similarly disparate. Human Rights Watch counted approximately 500 civilians killed by the bombing; the Yugoslav government estimated between 1,200 and 5,000.^[33]

If the NATO figures are to be believed, the bombings achieved a civilian to combatant kill ratio of about 1:10, on the Yugoslav government's figures, conversely, the ratio would be between 4:1 and 10:1. If the most conservative estimates from the sources cited above are used, the ratio was around 1:1.

According to military historian and Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren, for every Serbian soldier killed by NATO in 1999 (the period in which Operation Allied Force took place), four civilians died, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 4:1. Oren cites this figure as evidence that "even the most moral army can make mistakes, especially in dense urban warfare".^[34]

According to the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, as of January 2015 roughly 92,000 people had been killed in the Afghanistan war, of which over 26,000 were civilians, for a civilian to combatant ratio of 1:2.5.^[35]

According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of Iraq Body Count, a United Kingdom-based organization, American and Coalition forces (including Iraqi government forces) had killed at least 28,736 combatants as well as 13,807 civilians in the Iraq War, indicating a civilian to combatant casualty ratio inflicted by coalition forces of 1:2.^[36] However, overall, figures by the Iraq Body Count from 20 March 2003 to 14 March 2013 indicate that of 174,000 casualties only 39,900 were combatants, resulting in a civilian casualty rate of 77%. Most civilians were killed by anti-government insurgents and unidentified third parties.^[37]

The civilian casualty ratio for U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan conducted during 2004 and 2018 as part of the War on Terror is notoriously difficult to quantify. In 2010, the U.S. itself put the number of civilians killed from drone strikes in the last two years at no more than 20 to 30, a total that is far too low according to a spokesman for the NGO CIVIC.^[38] At the other extreme, Daniel L. Byman of the Brookings Institution suggested in 2009 that drone strikes may kill "10 or so civilians" for every militant killed, which would represent a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 10:1. Byman argues that civilian killings constitute a humanitarian tragedy and create dangerous political problems, including damage to the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and alienation of the Pakistani populace from America.^[39] An ongoing study by the New America Foundation finds non-militant casualty rates started high but declined steeply over time, from about 60% (3 out of 5) in 2004–2007 to less than 2% (1 out of 50) in 2012. In 2011, the study put the overall non-militant casualty rate since 2004 at 15–16%, or a 1:5 ratio, out of a total of between 1,908 and 3,225 people killed in Pakistan by drone strikes since 2004.^[40]

The global coalition's War against the Islamic State, from 2014, had led to as many as 50,000 ISIL combatant casualties by the end of 2016.^[41] Airwars calculated that 8,200–13,275 civilians were killed in Coalition airstrikes, mainly up to the end of 2017, with especially high casualty rates during the Battle of Mosul.^[42] An Associated Press investigation found that in the Battle of Mosul, of the >9,000 fatalities, between 42% and 60% were civilians.^[43]

Estimates of civilian casualties from the Israeli–Palestinian conflict differ. A 2007 report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) states that "Since September 2000, 5,848 people have been killed in the conflict - 4,228 have been Palestinians, 1024 were Israelis and 63 were foreigners. This report analyses the key trends of these fatalities". The report found that amongst those killed in that period, 69% of Israelis were civilians, while the report estimated 59% of Palestinian casualties were civilians.^[44][45]

However, in operations in Gaza since 2008, the ratio again dropped, as low as 3:1 during the 2014 Israel–Gaza conflict.^[48]

Yagil Levy, an Israeli sociologist writing in Ha'aretz at the end of 2023, analysed civilian casualty rates in five Israeli aerial operations: Pillar of Defense (~1 week in November 2012); Guardian of the Walls (~10 days in May 2021); Breaking Dawn (3 days, August 2022); Shield and Arrow (5 days in May 2023); and the first two months of the 2023 Israel-Hamas war, based on reports of the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. He calculated civilian fatality rates for these as follows: 40%, 40%, 42%, 33% and 61%.^[49]

Palestinian casualties

The main sets of figures are those published by the IDF, essentially corroborated by Hamas, the opposing belligerent in the conflict, on the one hand; and those published by B'Tselem on the other hand.^[53][54]

The Goldstone Report into the conflict concluded that while there were many individual Gaza policemen who were members of militant groups, the Gaza police forces were a civilian police force and "cannot be said to have been taking a direct part in hostilities and thus did not lose their civilian immunity from direct attack as civilians".^[55]

Israeli casualties

13 Israelis were killed during the conflict, including 10 IDF soldiers (4 killed by friendly fire),^[52] giving a civilian casualty ratio for Palestinian forces of 24% or 3:10.

Reports of casualties in the 2014 Israel-Gaza conflict have been made available by a variety of sources. Most media accounts have used figures provided by the government in Gaza or non-governmental organizations.^[56] Differing methodologies have resulted in varied reports of both the overall death toll and the civilian casualty ratio.^[57]

According to the main estimates between 2,125^[58] and 2,310^[59] Gazans were killed and between 10,626^[59] and 10,895^[60] were wounded (including 3,374 children, of whom over 1,000 were left permanently disabled^{[61][better source needed]}). 66 Israeli soldiers, 5 Israeli civilians (including one child)^[62] and one Thai civilian were killed^[63] and 469 IDF soldiers and 261 Israeli civilians were injured.^[64] The Gaza Health Ministry, UN and some human rights groups reported that 69–75% of the Palestinian casualties were civilians;^[63][65][60] Israeli officials estimated that around 50% of those killed were civilians.,^[66] giving Israeli forces a ratio between 1:1 and 3:1 during the conflict.

In March 2015, OCHA reported that 2,220 Palestinians had been killed in the conflict, of whom 1,492 were civilians (551 children and 299 women), 605 militants and 123 of unknown status, giving Israeli forces a ratio of 3:1.^[48]

In October 7th 2023, Hamas led an attack on Israel which killed 1,140 Israelis, of which 695 were Israeli civilians, as well as 373 soldiers from various military positions and 71 foreign civilians,^[70] a ratio of 2:1 between civilians and militant forces. During the invasion of the Gaza Strip, the IDF reported around 300 deaths of soldiers, while the Hamas al Qassam Brigade estimated the number around 4,000 to 5,000 deaths of Israeli soldiers,^[71] Following the attack, Israel started extensive aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip followed by a large-scale ground invasion beginning on the 27th.

As of September 2024, more than 41,000 people killed by Israel in Gaza according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, since October 7th 2023, in addition to an estimated 10,000 bodies missing under the rubble.^[72][73] Among these numbers, 56% are estimated to be women and children.^[74]

According to Israel, an estimated civilian to combatant ratio of 1:1 has been reported, which Prime Minister Netanyahu has claimed to be the "lowest ratio of civilian to combatant deaths in the history of modern urban warfare."^[75][76][77] The Israeli Defence Forces' own reports seem to contradict this figure, estimating that approximately 15,000 to 17,000 Palestinian militants have been killed as of September 2024, which would suggest a civilian to combatant ratio between 1.5:1 and 1.8:1.^[78][79]

• Non-combatant casualty value
• Casualty recording
• Collateral damage
• Asymmetric warfare
• Fourth generation warfare
• Loss exchange ratio
• Just war
  • Distinction (law)
  • Proportionality (law)
  • Military necessity

• Dumas, Samuel; Vedel-Petersen, K. O. (1923). "Chapter VII: The mortality of the civilian population". In Westergaard, Harald (ed.). Losses of Life Caused by War. Oxford: Clarendon Press.